​IMAGINE JAPAN2050
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Roland Berger Senior Partner Seiichi Tamura

1.People and Society

It will be a driver in measuring the impact on the environment and resources. The speed of population growth will accelerate until 2050. 2.5 billion in 1950, 7.8 billion in 2020, 9.7 billion in 2050, and 10.9 billion by 2100. Population growth is mainly driven by Asia and Africa.

Assuming that the working population supports the elderly, Japan will need to support the elderly with 1.3 people in 2050 if the working population is 64 years old or younger. However, if healthy life expectancy increases and the working age is raised to 75, 2.7 people will be able to support the elderly. Globally, by 2050, the proportion of people over the age of 65 will be 6 → 3 in Asia, 13 → 9 in Africa, 3 → 2 in Europe, 3.5 → 2.4 in North America, and 2.4 in South America. 6.6 people → 3 people, Japan 3 people → 1.3 people, Japan is running at the forefront.

2.Health and Care

The impact of Covid-19 on GDP is GDP -4.4%, and we are waiting for the impact of the Lehman shock. Illness and treatment are important social issues. For example, the number of dementia patients worldwide is expected to increase from 50 million in 2018 to 82 million in 2030 and 150 million in 2050. This social security amount will increase from $1 trillion in 2018 to $2 trillion in 2030. A further increase is expected in the future.

3.Environment and Resources

Climate change and pollution (air, water, pollution)

Reductions in greenhouse gases are required to limit global warming to +1.5 degrees by 2100. On the other hand, as the population increases, the water usage fee will increase by 1.3 times by 2050. Calculation that 1.5 times as many calories are required for food. Agricultural land to cover this will be required twice as much as India's land. In order to secure food to support population growth, GHG will increase, so it is necessary to review current lifestyles such as eating habits and values in order to secure resources and resources to support population.

4.Economics and Business

By 2050, India will become the world's third largest GDP country, and there is a possibility that the power shift in the world economy will move to Asia. In addition, innovations in the transportation and utility sectors have a large impact on the economy. In addition, from the financial point of view, the dead will increase in all items of household, financial, non-financial, and national.

5.Technology and Innovation

There is a high correlation between the economy (GDP per capita) and the degree of innovation (Bloomberg Innovation index). From Gartner's Hype Cycle, AI is the key to innovation. There is a 50% chance that AI will replace telephone banking operators by 2024. You could write a New York Times bestseller in 2049. By 2060, machines will replace human tasks. By 2140, all occupations will be fully automated.

6.Politics and Governance

A crisis of democracy is expected. Authoritarian states already make up the majority of countries in the world, and there is a possibility that dissatisfaction with democracy in democratic countries such as the United States and Japan will increase. In 2007, the majority of the themes in the World Economic Forum's survey were economic, but in 2021 the majority of the themes have shifted to the environment as risks with a high probability of occurrence and a high degree of impact. .

This is the description part of the project. Provide a brief description so site visitors can understand your work and background. Click "Edit Text" or the text box.

This is the description part of the project. Provide a brief description so site visitors can understand your work and background. Click "Edit Text" or the text box.

This is the description part of the project. Click on the text part and edit it.

This is the description part of the project. Provide a brief description so site visitors can understand your work and background. Click "Edit Text" or the text box.

This is the description part of the project. Provide a brief description so site visitors can understand your work and background. Click "Edit Text" or the text box.